Physicists Rotate Beams of Light

Light waves can oscillate in different directions -- much like a string that can vibrate up and down or left and right -- depending on the direction in which it is picked. This is called the polarization of light. Physicists at the Vienna University of Technology have now, together with researchers at Würzburg University, developed a method to control and manipulate the polarization of light using ultra thin layers of semiconductor material.

For future research on light and its polarization this is an important step forward -- and this breakthrough could even open up possibilities for completely new computer technology. The experiment can be viewed as the optical version of an electronic transistor. The results of the experiment have now been published in the journalPhysical Review Letters.

Controlling light with magnetic fields

The polarization of light can change, when it passes through a material in a strong magnetic field. This phenomenon is known as the"Faraday effect.""So far, however, this effect had only been observed in materials in which it was very weak," professor Andrei Pimenov explains. He carried out the experiments at the Institute for Solid State Physics of the TU Vienna, together with his assistant Alexey Shuvaev. Using light of the right wavelength and extremely clean semiconductors, scientists in Vienna and Würzburg could achieve a Faraday effect which is orders of magnitude stronger than ever measured before.

Now light waves can be rotated into arbitrary directions -- the direction of the polarization can be tuned with an external magnetic field. Surprisingly, an ultra-thin layer of less than a thousandth of a millimeter is enough to achieve this."Such thin layers made of other materials could only change the direction of polarization by a fraction of one degree," says professor Pimenov. If the beam of light is then sent through a polarization filter, which only allows light of a particular direction of polarization to pass, the scientists can, rotating the direction appropriately, decide whether the beam should pass or not.

The key to this astonishing effect lies in the behavior of the electrons in the semiconductor. The beam of light oscillates the electrons, and the magnetic field deflects their vibrating motion. This complicated motion of the electrons in turn affects the beam of light and changes its direction of polarization.

An optical transistor

In the experiment, a layer of the semiconductor mercury telluride was irradiated with light in the infrared spectral range."The light has a frequency in the terahertz domain -- those are the frequencies, future generations of computers may operate with," professor Pimenov believes."For years, the clock rates of computers have not really increased, because a domain has been reached, in which material properties just don't play along anymore." A possible solution is to complement electronic circuits with optical elements. In a transistor, the basic element of electronics, an electric current is controlled by an external signal. In the experiment at TU Vienna, a beam of light is controlled by an external magnetic field. The two systems are very much alike."We could call our system a light-transistor," Pimenov suggests.

Before optical circuits for computers can be considered, the newly discovered effect will prove useful as a tool for further research. In optics labs, it will play an important role in research on new materials and the physics of light.

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BrainGate Neural Interface System Reaches 1,000-Day Performance Milestone

Results from five consecutive days of device use surrounding her 1,000th day in the device trial appeared online March 24 in theJournal of Neural Engineering.

"This proof of concept -- that after 1,000 days a woman who has no functional use of her limbs and is unable to speak can reliably control a cursor on a computer screen using only the intended movement of her hand -- is an important step for the field," said Dr. Leigh Hochberg, a Brown engineering associate professor, VA rehabilitation researcher, visiting associate professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School, and director of the BrainGate pilot clinical trial at MGH.

The woman, identified in the paper as S3, performed two"point-and-click" tasks each day by thinking about moving the cursor with her hand. In both tasks she averaged greater than 90 percent accuracy. Some on-screen targets were as small as the effective area of a Microsoft Word menu icon.

In each of S3's two tasks, performed in 2008, she controlled the cursor movement and click selections continuously for 10 minutes. The first task was to move the cursor to targets arranged in a circle and in the center of the screen, clicking to select each one in turn. The second required her to follow and click on a target as it sequentially popped up with varying size at random points on the screen.

From fundamental neuroscience to clinical utility

Under development since 2002, the investigational BrainGate system is a combination of hardware and software that directly senses electrical signals produced by neurons in the brain that control movement. By decoding those signals and translating them into digital instructions, the system is being evaluated for its ability to give people with paralysis control of external devices such as computers, robotic assistive devices, or wheelchairs. The BrainGate team is also engaged in research toward control of advanced prosthetic limbs and toward direct intracortical control of functional electrical stimulation devices for people with spinal cord injury, in collaboration with researchers at the Cleveland FES Center.

The system is currently in pilot clinical trials, directed by Hochberg at MGH.

BrainGate uses a tiny (4x4 mm, about the size of a baby aspirin) silicon electrode array to read neural signals directly within brain tissue. Although external sensors placed on the brain or skull surface can also read neural activity, they are believed to be far less precise. In addition, many prototype brain implants have eventually failed because of moisture or other perils of the internal environment.

"Neuroengineers have often wondered whether useful signals could be recorded from inside the brain for an extended period of time," Hochberg said."This is the first demonstration that this microelectrode array technology can provide useful neuroprosthetic signals allowing a person with tetraplegia to control an external device for an extended period of time."

Moving forward

Device performance was not the same at 2.7 years as it was earlier on, Hochberg added. At 33 months fewer electrodes were recording useful neural signals than after only six months. But John Donoghue -- VA senior research career scientist, Henry Merritt Wriston Professor of Neuroscience, director of the Brown Institute for Brain Science, and original developer of the BrainGate system -- said no evidence has emerged of any fundamental incompatibility between the sensor and the brain. Instead, it appears that decreased signal quality over time can largely be attributed to engineering, mechanical or procedural issues. Since S3's sensor was built and implanted in 2005, the sensor's manufacturer has reported continual quality improvements. The data from this study will be used to further understand and modify the procedures or device to further increase durability.

"None of us will be fully satisfied with an intracortical recording device until it provides decades of useful signals," Hochberg said."Nevertheless, I'm hopeful that the progress made in neural interface systems will someday be able to provide improved communication, mobility, and independence for people with locked-in syndrome or other forms of paralysis and eventually better control over prosthetic, robotic, or functional electrical stimulation systems {stimulating electrodes that have already returned limb function to people with cervical spinal cord injury}, even while engineers continue to develop ever-better implantable sensors."

In addition to demonstrating the very encouraging longevity of the BrainGate sensor, the paper also presents an advance in how the performance of a brain-computer interface can be measured, Simeral said."As the field continues to evolve, we'll eventually be able to compare and contrast technologies effectively."

As for S3, who had a brainstem stroke in the mid-1990s and is now in her late 50s, she continues to participate in trials with the BrainGate system, which continues to record useful signals, Hochberg said. However, data beyond the 1000th day in 2008 has thus far only been presented at scientific meetings, and Hochberg can only comment on data that has already completed the scientific peer review process and appeared in publication.

In addition to Simeral, Hochberg, and Donoghue, other authors are Brown computer scientist Michael Black and former Brown computer scientist Sung-Phil Kim.

About the BrainGate collaboration

This advance is the result of the ongoing collaborative BrainGate research at Brown University, Massachusetts General Hospital, and Providence VA Medical Center. The BrainGate research team is focused on developing and testing neuroscientifically inspired technologies to improve the communication, mobility, and independence of people with neurologic disorders, injury, or limb loss.

For more information, visitwww.braingate2.org.

The implanted microelectrode array and associated neural recording hardware used in the BrainGate research are manufactured by BlackRock Microsystems, LLC (Salt Lake City, UT).

This research was funded in part by the Rehabilitation Research and Development Service, Department of Veterans Affairs; The National Institutes of Health (NIH), including NICHD-NCMRR, NINDS/NICHD, NIDCD/ARRA, NIBIB, NINDS-Javits; the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation; MGH-Deane Institute for Integrated Research on Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke; and the Katie Samson Foundation.

The BrainGate pilot clinical trial was previously directed by Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems, Inc., Foxborough, MA (CKI). CKI ceased operations in 2009. The clinical trials of the BrainGate2 Neural Interface System are now administered by Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Mass. Donoghue is a former chief scientific officer and a former director of CKI; he held stocks and received compensation. Hochberg received research support from Massachusetts General and Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospitals, which in turn received clinical trial support from Cyberkinetics. Simeral received compensation as a consultant to CKI.

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Simulating Tomorrow's Accelerators at Near the Speed of Light

But realizing the promise of laser-plasma accelerators crucially depends on being able to simulate their operation in three-dimensional detail. Until now such simulations have challenged or exceeded even the capabilities of supercomputers.

A team of researchers led by Jean-Luc Vay of Berkeley Lab's Accelerator and Fusion Research Division (AFRD) has borrowed a page from Einstein to perfect a revolutionary new method for calculating what happens when a laser pulse plows through a plasma in an accelerator like BELLA. Using their"boosted-frame" method, Vay's team has achieved full 3-D simulations of a BELLA stage in just a few hours of supercomputer time, calculations that would have been beyond the state of the art just two years ago.

Not only are the recent BELLA calculations tens of thousands of times faster than conventional methods, they overcome problems that plagued previous attempts to achieve the full capacity of the boosted-frame method, such as violent numerical instabilities. Vay and his colleagues, Cameron Geddes of AFRD, Estelle Cormier-Michel of the Tech-X Corporation in Denver, and David Grote of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, publish their latest findings in the March, 2011 issue of the journalPhysics of Plasma Letters.

Space, time, and complexity

The boosted-frame method, first proposed by Vay in 2007, exploits Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity to overcome difficulties posed by the huge range of space and time scales in many accelerator systems. Vast discrepancies of scale are what made simulating these systems too costly.

"Most researchers assumed that since the laws of physics are invariable, the huge complexity of these systems must also be invariable," says Vay."But what are the appropriate units of complexity? It turns out to depend on how you make the measurements."

Laser-plasma wakefield accelerators are particularly challenging: they send a very short laser pulse through a plasma measuring a few centimeters or more, many orders of magnitude longer than the pulse itself (or the even-shorter wavelength of its light). In its wake, like a speedboat on water, the laser pulse creates waves in the plasma. These alternating waves of positively and negatively charged particles set up intense electric fields. Bunches of free electrons, shorter than the laser pulse,"surf" the waves and are accelerated to high energies.

"The most common way to model a laser-plasma wakefield accelerator in a computer is by representing the electromagnetic fields as values on a grid, and the plasma as particles that interact with the fields," explains Geddes, a member of the BELLA science staff who has long worked on laser-plasma acceleration."Since you have to resolve the finest structures -- the laser wavelength, the electron bunch -- over the relatively enormous length of the plasma, you need a grid with hundreds of millions of cells."

The laser period must also be resolved in time, and calculated over millions of time steps. As a result, while much of the important physics of BELLA is three-dimensional, direct 3-D simulation was initially impractical. Just a one-dimensional simulation of BELLA required 5,000 hours of supercomputer processor time at Berkeley Lab's National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC).

Choosing the right frame

The key to reducing complexity and cost lies in choosing the right point of view, or"reference frame." When Albert Einstein was 16 years old he imagined riding along in a frame moving with a beam of light -- a thought experiment that, 10 years later, led to his Special Theory of Relativity, which establishes that there is no privileged reference frame. Observers moving at different velocities may experience space and time differently and even see things happening in a different order, but calculations from any point of view can recover the same physical result.

Among the consequences are that the speed of light in a vacuum is always the same; compared to a stationary observer's experience, time moves more slowly while space contracts for an observer traveling near light speed. These different points of view are called Lorentz frames, and changing one for another is called a Lorentz transformation. The"boosted frame" of the laser pulse is the key to enabling calculations of laser-plasma wakefield accelerators that would otherwise be inaccessible.

A laser pulse pushing through a tenuous plasma moves only a little slower than light through a vacuum. An observer in the stationary laboratory frame sees it as a rapid oscillation of electromagnetic fields moving through a very long plasma, whose simulation requires high resolution and many time steps. But for an observer moving with the pulse, time slows, and the frequency of the oscillations is greatly reduced; meanwhile space contracts, and the plasma becomes much shorter. Thus relatively few time steps are needed to model the interaction between the laser pulse, the plasma waves formed in its wake, and the bunches of electrons riding the wakefield through the plasma. Fewer steps mean less computer time.

Eliminating instability

Early attempts to apply the boosted-frame method to laser-plasma wakefield simulations encountered numerical instabilities that limited how much the calculation frame could be boosted. Calculations could still be speeded up tens or even hundreds of times, but the full promise of the method could not be realized.

Vay's team showed that using a particular boosted frame, that of the wakefield itself -- in which the laser pulse is almost stationary -- realizes near-optimal speedup of the calculation. And it fundamentally modifies the appearance of the laser in the plasma. In the laboratory frame the observer sees many oscillations of the electromagnetic field in the laser pulse; in the frame of the wake, the observer sees just a few at a time.

Not only is speedup possible because of the coarser resolution, but at the same time numerical instabilities due to short wavelengths can be suppressed without affecting the laser pulse. Combined with special techniques for interpreting the data between frames, this allows the full potential of the boosted-frame principle to be reached.

"We produced the first full multidimensional simulation of the 10 billion-electron-volt design for BELLA," says Vay."We even ran simulations all the way up to a trillion electron volts, which establishes our ability to model the behavior of laser-plasma wakefield accelerator stages at varying energies. With this calculation we achieved the theoretical maximum speedup of the boosted-frame method for such systems -- a million times faster than similar calculations in the laboratory frame."

Simulations will still be challenging, especially those needed to tailor applications of high-energy laser-plasma wakefield accelerators to such uses as free-electron lasers for materials and biological sciences, or for homeland security or other research. But the speedup achieves what might otherwise have been virtually impossible: it puts the essential high-resolution simulations within reach of new supercomputers.

This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science, including calculations with the WARP beam-simulation code and other applications at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC).

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Bomb Disposal Robot Getting Ready for Front-Line Action

The organisations have come together to create a lightweight, remote-operated vehicle, or robot, that can be controlled by a wireless device, not unlike a games console, from a distance of several hundred metres.

The innovative robot, which can climb stairs and even open doors, will be used by soldiers on bomb disposal missions in countries such as Afghanistan.

Experts from the Department of Computer& Communications Engineering, based within the university's School of Engineering, are working on the project alongside NIC Instruments Limited of Folkestone, manufacturers of security search and bomb disposal equipment.

Much lighter and more flexible than traditional bomb disposal units, the robot is easier for soldiers to carry and use when out in the field. It has cameras on board, which relay images back to the operator via the hand-held control, and includes a versatile gripper which can carry and manipulate delicate items.

The robot also includes nuclear, biological and chemical weapons sensors.

Measuring just 72cm by 35cm, the robot weighs 48 kilogrammes and can move at speeds of up to eight miles per hour.

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Room-Temperature Spintronic Computers Coming Soon? Silicon Spin Transistors Heat Up and Spins Last Longer

"Electronic devices mostly use the charge of the electrons -- a negative charge that is moving," says Ashutosh Tiwari, an associate professor of materials science and engineering at the University of Utah."Spintronic devices will use both the charge and the spin of the electrons. With spintronics, we want smaller, faster and more power-efficient computers and other devices."

Tiwari and Ph.D. student Nathan Gray report their creation of room-temperature, spintronic transistors on a silicon semiconductor this month in the journalApplied Physics Letters. The research -- in which electron"spin" aligned in a certain way was injected into silicon chips and maintained for a record 276 trillionths of a second -- was funded by the National Science Foundation.

"Almost every electronic device has silicon-based transistors in it," Gray says."The current thrust of industry has been to make those transistors smaller and to add more of them into the same device" to process more data. He says his and Tiwari's research takes a different approach.

"Instead of just making transistors smaller and adding more of them, we make the transistors do more work at the same size because they have two different ways {electron charge and spin} to manipulate and process data," says Gray.

A Quick Spin through Spintronics

Modern computers and other electronic devices work because negatively charged electrons flow as electrical current. Transistors are switches that reduce computerized data to a binary code of ones or zeros represented by the presence or absence of electrons in semiconductors, most commonly silicon.

In addition to electric charge, electrons have another property known as spin, which is like the electron's intrinsic angular momentum. An electron's spin often is described as a bar magnet that points up or down, which also can represent ones and zeroes for computing.

Most previous research on spintronic transistors involved using optical radiation -- in the form of polarized light from lasers -- to orient the electron spins in non-silicon materials such as gallium arsenide or organic semiconductors at supercold temperatures.

"Optical methods cannot do that with silicon, which is the workhorse of the semiconductor and electronics industry, and the industry doesn't want to retool for another material," Tiwari says.

"Spintronics will become useful only if we use silicon," he adds.

The Experiment

In the new study, Tiwari and Gray used electricity and magnetic fields to inject"spin polarized carriers" -- namely, electrons with their spins aligned either all up or all down -- into silicon at room temperature.

Their trick was to use magnesium oxide as a"tunnel barrier" to get the aligned electron spins to travel from one nickel-iron electrode through the silicon semiconductor to another nickel-iron electrode. Without the magnesium oxide, the spins would get randomized almost immediately, with half up and half down, Gray says.

"This thing works at room temperature," Tiwari says."Most of the devices in earlier studies have to be cooled to very low temperatures" -- colder than 200 below zero Fahrenheit -- to align the electrons' spins either all up or all down."Our new way of putting spin inside the silicon does not require any cooling."

The experiment used a flat piece of silicon about 1 inch long, about 0.3 inches wide and one-fiftieth of an inch thick. An ultra-thin layer of magnesium oxide was deposited on the silicon wafer. Then, one dozen tiny transistors were deposited on the silicon wafer so they could be used to inject electrons with aligned spins into the silicon and later detect them.

Each nickel-iron transistor had three contacts or electrodes: one through which electrons with aligned spins were injected into the silicon and detected, a negative electrode and a positive electrode used to measure voltage.

During the experiment, the researchers send direct current through the spin-injector electrode and negative electrode of each transistor. The current is kept steady, and the researchers measure variations in voltage while applying a magnetic field to the apparatus

"By looking at the change in the voltage when we apply a magnetic field, we can find how much spin has been injected and the spin lifetime," Tiwari says.

A 328 Nanometer, 276 Picosecond Step for Spintronics

For spintronic devices to be practical, electrons with aligned spins need to be able to move adequate distances and retain their spin alignments for an adequate time.

During the new study, the electrons retained their spins for 276 picoseconds, or 276 trillionths of a second. And based on that lifetime, the researchers calculate the spin-aligned electrons moved through the silicon 328 nanometers, which is 328 billionths of a meter or about 13 millionths of an inch.

"It's a tiny distance for us, but in transistor technology, it is huge," Gray says."Transistors are so small today that that's more than enough to get the electron where we need it to go."

"Those are very good numbers," Tiwari says."These numbers are almost 10 times bigger than what we need {for spintronic devices} and two times bigger than if you use aluminum oxide" instead of the magnesium oxide in his study.

He says Dutch researchers previously were able to inject aligned spins into silicon using aluminum oxide as the"tunneling medium," but the new study shows magnesium oxide works better.

The new study's use of electronic spin injection is much more practical than using optical methods such as lasers because lasers are too big for chips in consumer electronic devices, Tiwari says.

He adds that spintronic computer processors require little power compared with electronic devices, so a battery that may power an electronic computer for eight hours might last more than 24 hours on a spintronic computer.

Gray says spintronics is"the next big step to push the limits of semiconductor technology that we see in every aspect of our lives: computers, cell phones, GPS (navigation) devices, iPods, TVs."

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Web-Crawling the Brain: 3-D Nanoscale Model of Neural Circuit Created

Researchers in Harvard Medical School's Department of Neurobiology have developed a technique for unraveling these masses. Through a combination of microscopy platforms, researchers can crawl through the individual connections composing a neural network, much as Google crawls Web links.

"The questions that such a technique enables us to address are too numerous even to list," said Clay Reid, HMS professor of neurobiology and senior author on a paper reporting the findings in the March 10 edition ofNature.

The cerebral cortex is arguably the most important part of the mammalian brain. It processes sensory input, reasoning and, some say, even free will. For the past century, researchers have understood the broad outline of cerebral cortex anatomy. In the past decade, imaging technologies have allowed us to see neurons at work within a cortical circuit, to watch the brain process information.

But while these platforms can show us what a circuit does, they don't show us how it operates.

For many years, Reid's lab has been studying the cerebral cortex, adapting ways to hone the detail with which we can view the brain at work. Recently they and others have succeeded in isolating the activities of individual neurons, watching them fire in response to external stimuli.

The ultimate prize, however, would be to get inside a single cortical circuit and probe the architecture of its wiring.

Just one of these circuits, however, contains between 10,000 and 100,000 neurons, each of which makes about 10,000 interconnections, totaling upwards of 1 billion connections -- all within a single circuit."This is a radically hard problem to address," Reid said.

Reid's team, which included Davi Bock, then a graduate student, and postdoctoral researcher Wei-Chung Allen Lee, embarked on a two-part study of the pinpoint-sized region of a mouse brain that is involved in processing vision. They first injected the brain with dyes that flashed whenever specific neurons fired and recorded the firings using a laser-scanning microscope. They then conducted a large anatomy experiment, using electron microscopy to see the same neurons and hundreds of others with nanometer resolution.

Using a new imaging system they developed, the team recorded more than 3 million high-resolution images. They sent them to the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center at Carnegie Mellon University, where researchers stitched them into 3-D images. Using the resulting images, Bock, Lee and laboratory technician Hyon Suk Kim selected 10 individual neurons and painstakingly traced many of their connections, crawling through the brain's dense thicket to create a partial wiring diagram.

This model also yielded some interesting insights into how the brain functions. Reid's group found that neurons tasked with suppressing brain activity seem to be randomly wired, putting the lid on local groups of neurons all at once rather than picking and choosing. Such findings are important because many neurological conditions, such as epilepsy, are the result of neural inhibition gone awry.

"This is just the iceberg's tip," said Reid."Within ten years I'm convinced we'll be imaging the activity of thousands of neurons in a living brain. In a visual circuit, we'll interpret the data to reconstruct what an animal actually sees. By that time, with the anatomical imaging, we'll also know how it's all wired together."

For now, Reid and his colleagues are working to scale up this platform to generate larger data sets.

"How the brain works is one of the greatest mysteries in nature," Reid added,"and this research presents a new and powerful way for us to explore that mystery."

This research was funded by the Center for Brain Science at Harvard University, Microsoft Research, and the NIH though the National Eye Institute. Researchers report no conflicts of interest.

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Real March Madness Is Relying on Seedings to Determine Final Four

According to an operations research analysis model developed by Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor of computer science and the director of the simulation and optimization laboratory at the University of Illinois, you're better off picking a combination of two top-seeded teams, a No. 2 seed and a No. 3 seed.

"There are patterns that exist in the seeds," Jacobson says."As much as we like to believe otherwise, the fact of the matter is that we've uncovered a model that captures this pattern. As a result of that, in spite of what we emotionally feel about teams or who's going to win, the reality is that the numbers trump all of these things," Jacobson said."It's more likely to be 1, 1, 2, 3 in the Final Four than four No. 1's."

Jacobson's model is unique in that it prognosticates not based on who the teams are, but on the seeds they hold. He describes his model in a forthcoming paper in the journal Omega with co-authors Alex Nikolaev, of the University of Buffalo; Adrian Lee, of CITERI (Central Illinois Technology and Education Research Institute); and Douglas King, a graduate student at Illinois.

Jacobson has also integrated the model into a user-friendly website to help March Madness fans determine the relative probability of their chosen team combinations appearing in the final rounds of the NCAA men's basketball tournament.

A number of websites offer assistance to budding bracketologists, such as game-by-game probabilities of certain match-ups or determining the spread on a given team reaching a particular point in the tournament. Jacobson's website is the only one to look at collective groups of seeds within the brackets.

"What we do is use the power of analytics to uncover trends in 'bracketology.' It really is a mathematical science," he said."What our model enables us to do is look at the likelihood or probability that a certain set of seed combinations will occur as we advance deeper into the tournament."

Jacobson's team applied a statistical method called goodness-of-fit testing to NCAA tournament data from 1985 to 2010, identifying patterns in seed distribution in the Elite Eight, Final Four and national championship rounds. They found that the seeds themselves exhibit certain statistical patterns, independent of the team. They then fit the pattern to a stochastic model they can use to assess probabilities and odds.

Two computer science undergraduates, Ammar Rizwan and Emon Dai, built the websitebracketodds.cs.illinois.edubased on Jacobson's model. The publicly accessible website will be up through the entire tournament. Users can evaluate their brackets and also can compare relative likelihood of two sets of seed combinations.

"For each of the rounds that we have available, you could put in what you have so far and even compare it to other possible sets," Rizwan said.

For example, the probability of the Final Four comprising the four top-seeded teams is 0.026, or once every 39 years. Meanwhile, the probability of a Final Four of all No. 16 seeds -- the lowest-seeded teams in the tournament -- is so small that it has a frequency of happening once every eight hundred trillion years. (The Milky Way contains an estimated one hundred billion stars.)

"Basically, if every star was given a year, the years it would take for this to occur is 8,000 times all the stars in the galaxy," Jacobson said."It gives you perspective."

However, sets with long odds do happen. The most unlikely combination in the 26 years studied occurred in 2000, with a Final Four seed combination of 1, 5, 8 and 8. But such a bracket is only predicted to happen once every 32,000 years, so those filling out brackets at home shouldn't hope for a repeat.

What amateur bracketologists can be confident of is upsets. For even the most probable Final Four combination of 1,1,2,3 to occur, two top-seeded schools have to lose.

"In fact, upsets occur with great frequency and great predictability. If you look statistically, there's a certain number of upsets that occur in each round. We just don't know which team they're going to be or when they're going to occur," Jacobson said.

After the 2011 tournament, and in years to come, Jacobson will integrate the new data into the model to continually refine its prediction power. For 2012, Jacobson, Rizwan and Dai hope to integrate a comparative probability feature into the website to allow users to calculate, for example, the probability of a particular set of Final Four seeds if the Elite Eight seeds are given.

Until then, users can find out how likely their picks really are, and compare them against friends' picks -- or even sports commentators'.

"We're not here specifically to say 'Syracuse is going to beat Kentucky in the Elite Eight.' What we're saying is that the seed numbers have patterns," Jacobson said."A 1, 1, 2, 3 is the most likely Final Four. I don't know which two 1's, I don't know which No. 2 and I don't know which No. 3. But I can tell you that if you want to go purely with the odds, choose a Final Four with seeds 1, 1, 2, 3."

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